AR-RB-2026-04Entry weakened nationally while broad-sector paths diverged
Central finding
From 1978 to 2023, the national establishment entry rate fell from 15.146 percent to 10.608 percent, a decline of 4.538 percentage points, while the exit rate fell 1.741 points.
Business Dynamics Statistics measure establishment, firm, and job flows within published national and NAICS-sector universes. They do not measure concentration, market power, legal antitrust markets, or the competitive cause of entry, exit, creation, or destruction. The 17-sector structure comparison joins 2022 medians of published six-digit industry HHI to 2023 broad-sector BDS rates. Its correlation is a descriptive cross-section, not a causal estimate, legal market definition, sector HHI, or competition score.
Economic evidence route
The route preserves 46 annual vintages, 19 broad-sector histories, six published measures, and the boundary around the separate 17-sector structure join.
Declared analytical scope
Published flow history to broad-sector path to guarded structure question
No legal market or causal node is asserted. The cross-section is a reproducible research prompt, not a conclusion.
Public action docket
ForCensus Bureau, FTC, DOJ, Congress, state economic agencies, and competition researchers
Release annual entry, exit, job-flow, firm-age, and size-class measures at stable detailed-industry levels with revision histories and disclosure flags that can be joined responsibly to public structure evidence.
Link establishments and firms to common control, mergers, divestitures, entry, exit, financing events, and identifier changes so researchers can distinguish organic dynamism from ownership and reporting transitions.
Fund reproducible studies that pre-specify demand, technology, financing, regulation, merger, and market-power hypotheses and test prices, quality, wages, innovation, access, and entry without compressing them into one competition score.
Evidence still needed
Reader packet
ReusableCanonical citation
Antitrust Radar Research Team. (2026, July 20). Business Dynamism Across U.S. Sectors, 1978-2023: Entry weakened nationally while broad-sector paths diverged. Competition Research Briefs, AR-RB-2026-04 (Version 1.0). Antitrust Radar. https://antitrustradar.org/reports/business-dynamism-across-sectors-1978-2023
Source basis
U.S. Census Bureau 2023 Business Dynamics Statistics national and broad-sector annual tables for 1978-2023, paired only in a separately labeled cross-section with 2022 Economic Census medians of published six-digit industry HHI.
2
Source records
19
Broad sectors
1
public dataset
Source types
5
Evidence asks
Evidence index
Published Jul 20, 2026 · sources through Jul 19, 2026 · version 1.0 · Current edition
Read / Briefing claim
Start with the national arc, sector paths, and interpretation boundary.
National flows establish the long arc. Nineteen broad-sector histories show where that aggregate conceals distinct trajectories.
Exit fell 1.741 points, so the entry decline was larger.
Utilities to Transportation and warehousing in 2023.
The structure join is a research prompt across mismatched vintages and aggregated universes.
National flow track
National establishment flows
Entry, exit, job creation, destruction, net creation, and excess reallocation answer different questions. Their endpoint changes are not additive and are never combined here.
Sector entry field
| 2023 rank / sector | 1978 to 2023 | 1978 | 2023 | Change | 2023 U.S. gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0148-49Transportation and warehousing | 17.057% | 14.851% | -2.206 pp | +4.243 pp | |
| 0271Arts, entertainment, and recreation | 17.677% | 13.716% | -3.961 pp | +3.108 pp | |
| 0323Construction | 22.191% | 13.016% | -9.175 pp | +2.408 pp | |
| 0456Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services | 22.585% | 12.905% | -9.68 pp | +2.297 pp | |
| 0553Real estate and rental and leasing | 17.547% | 12.647% | -4.9 pp | +2.039 pp | |
| 0654Professional, scientific, and technical services | 17.593% | 12.473% | -5.12 pp | +1.865 pp | |
| 0761Educational services | 13.973% | 11.167% | -2.806 pp | +0.559 pp | |
| 0872Accommodation and food services | 18.294% | 11.04% | -7.254 pp | +0.432 pp | |
| 0962Health care and social assistance | 12.391% | 10.783% | -1.608 pp | +0.175 pp | |
| 1011Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting | 19.159% | 10.676% | -8.483 pp | +0.068 pp | |
| 1151Information | 12.773% | 10.578% | -2.195 pp | -0.03 pp | |
| 1281Other services except public administration | 13.711% | 9.993% | -3.718 pp | -0.615 pp | |
| 1321Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction | 16.153% | 9.436% | -6.717 pp | -1.172 pp | |
| 1452Finance and insurance | 10.994% | 8.115% | -2.879 pp | -2.493 pp | |
| 1544-45Retail trade | 13.788% | 7.924% | -5.864 pp | -2.684 pp | |
| 1631-33Manufacturing | 10.927% | 6.87% | -4.057 pp | -3.738 pp | |
| 1742Wholesale trade | 12.803% | 6.719% | -6.084 pp | -3.889 pp | |
| 1855Management of companies and enterprises | 11.006% | 5.806% | -5.2 pp | -4.802 pp | |
| 1922Utilities | 8.006% | 5.266% | -2.74 pp | -5.342 pp |
Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services
Health care and social assistance
-4.994 pp across the endpoints
Structure and dynamism
Separated-vintage sector join
| Sector | Detailed industries | Median HHI | HHI rank | Entry rate | Entry rank | Exit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48Transportation and warehousing | 54 | 277.4 | #7 | 14.851% | #1 | 14.67% |
| 71Arts, entertainment, and recreation | 25 | 192.2 | #8 | 13.716% | #2 | 10.45% |
| 23Construction | 31 | 19.4 | #16 | 13.016% | #3 | 11.082% |
| 56Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services | 44 | 182 | #9 | 12.905% | #4 | 11.833% |
| 53Real estate and rental and leasing | 24 | 116.9 | #11 | 12.647% | #5 | 11.301% |
| 54Professional, scientific, and technical services | 48 | 94.9 | #12 | 12.473% | #6 | 11.031% |
| 61Educational services | 14 | 75.6 | #13 | 11.167% | #7 | 8.441% |
| 72Accommodation and food services | 15 | 15 | #17 | 11.04% | #8 | 9.081% |
| 62Health care and social assistance | 39 | 35.8 | #15 | 10.783% | #9 | 7.708% |
| 51Information | 29 | 638.2 | #1 | 10.578% | #10 | 11.499% |
| 81Other services (except public administration) | 40 | 54.3 | #14 | 9.993% | #11 | 8.146% |
| 21Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction | 21 | 559.2 | #3 | 9.436% | #12 | 7.685% |
| 52Finance and insurance | 29 | 405.8 | #5 | 8.115% | #13 | 9.608% |
| 44Retail trade | 57 | 133.9 | #10 | 7.924% | #14 | 7.132% |
| 31Manufacturing | 346 | 439.3 | #4 | 6.87% | #15 | 6.997% |
| 42Wholesale trade | 69 | 360.8 | #6 | 6.719% | #16 | 8.243% |
| 22Utilities | 14 | 615.9 | #2 | 5.266% | #17 | 5.691% |
Public research agenda
Publish entry, exit, firm-age, size-class, ownership, financing, and concentration evidence at compatible detailed-industry levels.
Build annual structure-flow panels with stable identifiers, revision histories, and explicit coverage so adjacent vintages are not mistaken for simultaneous measures.
Pre-specify demand, technology, regulation, financing, merger, and market-power hypotheses before treating a descriptive sector association as an explanation.
Table of contents
Executive summary
From 1978 to 2023, the national establishment entry rate fell from 15.146 percent to 10.608 percent, a decline of 4.538 percentage points, while the exit rate fell 1.741 points. Gross job creation fell 7.458 points and excess job reallocation fell 4.695 points. Every one of the 19 broad Census sectors recorded lower establishment entry at the two endpoints, but the decline ranged from 1.608 points in health care and social assistance to 9.680 points in administrative and support services. In 2023, entry ranged from 5.266 percent in utilities to 14.851 percent in transportation and warehousing. A deliberately separate cross-section joins 2023 entry rates to 2022 medians of published six-digit industry HHI for 17 sectors and yields a descriptive correlation of -0.533. That association is not a causal estimate, legal market definition, sector HHI, or competition score. Business Dynamics Statistics measure firm, establishment, and job flows; stronger antitrust research requires compatible detailed-industry structure, ownership, financing, merger, entry, price, quality, and policy evidence.
15.146% to 10.608%
national establishment entry
-4.538 percentage points across 46 annual BDS observations.
Census BDS national series19 / 19
broad sectors with lower entry
Endpoint declines range from -1.608 to -9.680 points.
Broad-sector history panel9.585 pp
2023 broad-sector entry spread
22 recorded 5.266%; 48-49 recorded 14.851%.
2023 BDS sector panelr = -0.533
descriptive sector association
17 sectors compare 2022 median detailed-industry HHI with 2023 entry; this is not causal or a market definition.
Separated-vintage cross-sectionResearch map
Source basis
U.S. Census Bureau 2023 Business Dynamics Statistics national and broad-sector annual tables for 1978-2023, paired only in a separately labeled cross-section with 2022 Economic Census medians of published six-digit industry HHI.
Bounded economic evidence
Business Dynamics Statistics measure establishment, firm, and job flows within published national and NAICS-sector universes. They do not measure concentration, market power, legal antitrust markets, or the competitive cause of entry, exit, creation, or destruction. The 17-sector structure comparison joins 2022 medians of published six-digit industry HHI to 2023 broad-sector BDS rates. Its correlation is a descriptive cross-section, not a causal estimate, legal market definition, sector HHI, or competition score.
U.S. Census Bureau 2023 Business Dynamics Statistics national and broad-sector annual tables for 1978-2023, paired only in a separately labeled cross-section with 2022 Economic Census medians of published six-digit industry HHI.
Source register
Source 01
U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 Business Dynamics Statistics, economy-wide and sector time-series tables, released September 2025.
Annual national and two-digit NAICS sector measures of establishment entry and exit job creation and destruction net job creation and employment reallocation from 1978 through 2023.
Source 02
U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Economic Census, EC2200SIZECONCEN: Selected Sectors - Concentration of Largest Firms for the United States, released April 2025.
Economy-wide national firm concentration statistics by 2022 NAICS industry including revenue-based HHI and largest-firm concentration ratios.
Long-run declines in entry and job flows should guide a public research program that connects business formation and exit to compatible industry structure, ownership, financing, merger, price, quality, and policy evidence without treating broad-sector associations as causal findings.
Census Bureau, FTC, DOJ, Congress, state economic agencies, and competition researchers
Policy claims are framed as public-interest asks, not legal conclusions. Each ask should be read with the report’s source basis and limitations.