Antitrust Radar

Public competition mandate

Fair competition is public power.

Policy proposals informed by public competition research. Concentration can identify a question worth investigating; it does not establish harm or unlawful conduct.

Refreshes the station, action-center packet, and brief-builder default.

Build action briefRankings

The role of government is not passive refereeing. It is to protect people from private bottlenecks, hidden gatekeepers, and markets where choice exists only on paper.

Public action triage

Choose a market. Inspect the government lever.

How the priority screen is bounded

The focused market stays first. Screening rank orders attention; it does not measure public harm or establish liability. The agency guideline and Antitrust Radar priority queue remain separate below. Every docket keeps its evidence boundary and government-action lane visible.

Agency guidelineHHI > 1,8002023 highly concentrated lineRadar priority queueHHI >= 2,500observatory screening ruleShare screensTop firm >= 50% · CR4 >= 75%observatory screening rules
5 live dockets
  1. #03Social referralsDigital platformsHHI 4,995estimated public · medium confidence
  2. #01SearchDigital platformsHHI 7,359estimated public · medium confidence
  3. #02Mobile operatingDigital platformsHHI 5,337estimated public · medium confidence
  4. #04AI assistantsDigital platformsHHI 4,804estimated public · medium confidence
  5. #05Individual insuranceHealthcare gatekeepersHHI 3,650estimated public · high confidence

FTC/DOJ

Social referrals

Immediate review
HHI
4,995
CR4
94.4%
Top firm
68.9%

People exposed

Users, publishers, and small businessesDefaults, distribution control, and data lock-in can make switching technically possible but practically weak.

Government lever

FTC/DOJ conduct reviewTest defaults, exclusionary distribution, data access, and interoperability remedies against public outcomes.

Evidence boundaryAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats · estimated public · medium confidence

1HarmPeople pay the price
2PowerGatekeepers narrow choice
3DutyGovernment must act

12

profiles

7

HHI >= 2,500

4

data gaps

45

sources

Public duty compact

Make market power a government obligation.

Inspectable
Public facts45 source recordsEvery ask starts with inspectable records, methods, dates, and caveats.Government duty4 disclosure gapsHidden market shares and local control should become public obligations.Action packet7 rule-triggered reviewsMove concentrated markets into oversight, disclosure, and fair-market rules.

Evidence to action

From market power to public action

Source ledger
BriefAskgovernment-ready packetRankings7HHI >= 2,500Sources45public recordsDataAPIopen rowsDocket7rule-triggered reviewsEndpointJSONpublic endpoints

Action packet contract

Profile, sources, data, and brief stay linked before anyone sends an ask.

4/4 live
Profilemarket scopeSourcessource rowsData consoleopen rowsBrief builderpublic ask

Public duty compact

Make market power a government obligation.

Inspectable
Public facts45 source recordsEvery ask starts with inspectable records, methods, dates, and caveats.Government duty4 disclosure gapsHidden market shares and local control should become public obligations.Action packet7 rule-triggered reviewsMove concentrated markets into oversight, disclosure, and fair-market rules.

Public action triage

Choose a market. Inspect the government lever.

How the priority screen is bounded

The focused market stays first. Screening rank orders attention; it does not measure public harm or establish liability. The agency guideline and Antitrust Radar priority queue remain separate below. Every docket keeps its evidence boundary and government-action lane visible.

Agency guidelineHHI > 1,8002023 highly concentrated lineRadar priority queueHHI >= 2,500observatory screening ruleShare screensTop firm >= 50% · CR4 >= 75%observatory screening rules
5 live dockets
  1. #03Social referralsDigital platformsHHI 4,995estimated public · medium confidence
  2. #01SearchDigital platformsHHI 7,359estimated public · medium confidence
  3. #02Mobile operatingDigital platformsHHI 5,337estimated public · medium confidence
  4. #04AI assistantsDigital platformsHHI 4,804estimated public · medium confidence
  5. #05Individual insuranceHealthcare gatekeepersHHI 3,650estimated public · high confidence

FTC/DOJ

Social referrals

Immediate review
HHI
4,995
CR4
94.4%
Top firm
68.9%

People exposed

Users, publishers, and small businessesDefaults, distribution control, and data lock-in can make switching technically possible but practically weak.

Government lever

FTC/DOJ conduct reviewTest defaults, exclusionary distribution, data access, and interoperability remedies against public outcomes.

Evidence boundaryAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats · estimated public · medium confidence

01DOJ/FTC Merger Guidelines (2023)>1,8002023 guideline HHI threshold02FTC-backed PBM profile~80%PBM prescriptions03U.S. Census Bureau49.7%renter cost burden04Census HVS Q1 20261.1%housing vacancy

Public market launcher

Choose a concentrated market and carry the evidence forward.

All profiles

01

Define the market

Start with the lived market people can actually choose from.

02

Trace the source

Show publisher, date, method, and confidence before making claims.

03

Ask government to act

Turn evidence into oversight, disclosure, and fair-market rules.

Public record

Why the mandate requires action

>1,800

DOJ/FTC Merger Guidelines (2023)

2023 guideline HHI threshold

The agencies' 2023 Merger Guidelines treat markets above this HHI level as highly concentrated.

~80%

FTC-backed PBM profile

PBM prescriptions

The FTC reported the top three PBMs processed nearly four in five U.S. prescriptions in 2023.

49.7%

U.S. Census Bureau

renter cost burden

Census reported nearly half of U.S. renter households spent more than 30% of income on housing costs in 2023.

1.1%

Census HVS Q1 2026

housing vacancy

Census HVS reported a 1.1% homeowner vacancy rate in Q1 2026, a scarcity signal that strengthens the case for local competition evidence.

Government duty queue

Turn the record into obligations.

live
Disclosure orderRequire public market-share, ownership, and data-limit disclosure where the record is incomplete.4gapsConcentration screenMove profiles with published HHI at or above 2,500 into public review before bottlenecks become normal infrastructure.7HHI 2,500+Public ask queueTranslate the evidence packet into specific oversight, rulemaking, and disclosure asks.7rule-triggered

Record-to-duty route

Make the mandate inspectable.

3 steps
01RecordPublic facts45 sources02ObligationGovernment duty4 disclosure gaps03PacketPublic ask7 rule-triggered
Read public briefings

Action brief station

Build the packet before the docket gets long.

The public workflow should start near the top: pick a priority market, inspect the source trail, open the data console, and generate a government-ready brief.

Market in focus

Social referrals

Immediate review

People harmed

United States

Government lever

Test whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.

HHI 4,995 should move into a public ask that names the affected users, the missing record, and the agency route.

estimated publicmedium confidenceAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats
Draft routeDraft with caveats
Publication postureReview caveats

3/3 core metrics; disclose source and confidence limits

Brief builderReview lanes

Source to action route

One packet, four inspectable records

4 data gaps
  1. 01Profile1 marketOpen record
  2. 02Sources1 citedOpen record
  3. 03DataHHIOpen record
  4. 04BriefReview caveatsDraft with caveats
HHI
4,995HHI 4,995
CR4
94.4%four-firm share
Top firm
68.9%single-firm share
Review lane
Immediate reviewestimated public · medium confidence
Public proof card

HHI

4,995

HHI 4,995

CR4

94.4%

four-firm share

Top firm

68.9%

single-firm share

Review lane

Immediate review

estimated public · medium confidence

This station makes the advocacy route inspectable before the longer docket: profile, source rows, public data, then a brief people can send to government.

Government duty ledger

Fair competition needs public obligations, not private promises.

This ledger turns the mission into a government work plan: disclose hidden market facts, scrutinize bottlenecks, investigate public harm, and publish reusable evidence.

Public duty route

Evidence moves from data gaps to public obligations.

Build brief
  1. 01Disclose the market4 data gaps

    When public records do not show firm shares or local control, government should require disclosure before people are asked to trust the market.

  2. 02Scrutinize the bottleneck7 HHI 2,500+

    Published HHI at or above 2,500 should trigger harder questions about switching costs, entry barriers, platform leverage, and whether choice exists in practice.

  3. 03Investigate public harm7 rule-triggered reviews

    The action docket turns market evidence into public questions agencies, legislatures, and local officials can inspect.

  4. 04Publish reusable facts45 source records

    Every public ask should carry citations, dates, confidence labels, and open data routes so others can challenge or reuse the evidence.

4data gapsDisclose the marketWhen public records do not show firm shares or local control, government should require disclosure before people are asked to trust the market.Open route 7HHI 2,500+Scrutinize the bottleneckPublished HHI at or above 2,500 should trigger harder questions about switching costs, entry barriers, platform leverage, and whether choice exists in practice.Open route 7rule-triggered reviewsInvestigate public harmThe action docket turns market evidence into public questions agencies, legislatures, and local officials can inspect.Open route 45source recordsPublish reusable factsEvery public ask should carry citations, dates, confidence labels, and open data routes so others can challenge or reuse the evidence.Open route

Public action docket

Route concentrated markets from public record to government duty.

The docket keeps the mission operational: identify where concentrated power harms people, show what evidence is public, name the agency lane, and make the next ask inspectable.

7

Immediate review

markets meeting the published structural review screen

1

Near-term watch

markets where concentration or trend signals need continuing pressure

4

Evidence build

markets where the public record is too thin for firm-level accountability

4

Data gaps

profiles where public evidence must be disclosed before claims harden

Evidence-to-action route

Choose the stage that matches the public decision, then inspect the ranked market docket below.

Docket decision lens

Evidence question

What can the public record prove today?
Open workspace
03 · Digital platformsSocial referralsUsers, publishers, and small businessesEvidence signalHHI 4,995estimated public · medium confidenceImmediate review

Test whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.

Public harm

Users, publishers, and small businesses

Defaults, distribution control, and data lock-in can make switching technically possible but practically weak.

Government lever

FTC/DOJ conduct review

Test defaults, exclusionary distribution, data access, and interoperability remedies against public outcomes.

Evidence pressure: HHI 4,995

HHI
4,995
CR4
94.4%
Top firm
68.9%
FTC/DOJestimated publicAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats
ProfileSocial referralsSourcescitation rowsData consolescoped workbenchBrief builderAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats
JSON Source rows
01 · Digital platformsSearch enginesUsers, publishers, and small businessesEvidence signalHHI 7,359estimated public · medium confidenceImmediate review

Test whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.

Public harm

Users, publishers, and small businesses

Defaults, distribution control, and data lock-in can make switching technically possible but practically weak.

Government lever

FTC/DOJ conduct review

Test defaults, exclusionary distribution, data access, and interoperability remedies against public outcomes.

Evidence pressure: HHI 7,359

HHI
7,359
CR4
99.4%
Top firm
85.2%
FTC/DOJestimated publicAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats
ProfileSearch enginesSourcescitation rowsData consolescoped workbenchBrief builderAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats
JSON Source rows
02 · Digital platformsMobile operating systemsUsers, publishers, and small businessesEvidence signalHHI 5,337estimated public · medium confidenceImmediate review

Test whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.

Public harm

Users, publishers, and small businesses

Defaults, distribution control, and data lock-in can make switching technically possible but practically weak.

Government lever

FTC/DOJ conduct review

Test defaults, exclusionary distribution, data access, and interoperability remedies against public outcomes.

Evidence pressure: HHI 5,337

HHI
5,337
CR4
100.0%
Top firm
63.1%
FTC/DOJestimated publicAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats
ProfileMobile operating systemsSourcescitation rowsData consolescoped workbenchBrief builderAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats
JSON Source rows
04 · Digital platformsAI assistantsUsers, publishers, and small businessesEvidence signalHHI 4,804estimated public · medium confidenceImmediate review

Test whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.

Public harm

Users, publishers, and small businesses

Defaults, distribution control, and data lock-in can make switching technically possible but practically weak.

Government lever

FTC/DOJ conduct review

Test defaults, exclusionary distribution, data access, and interoperability remedies against public outcomes.

Evidence pressure: HHI 4,804

HHI
4,804
CR4
94.8%
Top firm
67.1%
FTC/DOJestimated publicComparable multi-year observations
ProfileAI assistantsSourcescitation rowsData consolescoped workbenchBrief builderComparable multi-year observations
JSON Source rows
05 · Healthcare gatekeepersIndividual insurancePatients, pharmacies, and payersEvidence signalHHI 3,650estimated public · high confidenceImmediate review

Keep the market on a public watchlist and require reusable concentration data at each major industry update.

Public harm

Patients, pharmacies, and payers

Middlemen can narrow access, reimbursement, and medicine affordability while firm-level shares stay hidden.

Government lever

FTC/HHS transparency order

Require auditable firm-level shares and outcome data tied to patient and pharmacy choice.

Evidence pressure: HHI 3,650

HHI
3,650
CR4
N/A
Top firm
N/A
FTC + HHS/DOJestimated publicComplete participant shares and residual-category treatment
ProfileIndividual insuranceSourcescitation rowsData consolescoped workbenchBrief builderComplete participant shares and residual-category treatment
JSON Source rows
Action playbooks

Transparency demand

Public data rights

Opaque summaries are not enough. Public-interest competition work needs citable firm-level data, source dates, methods, and uncertainty labels so advocates can inspect the evidence.

Market in focus

Social referrals

HHI 4,995

Market JSON
Packet completionReady with caveats4/6 checks ready83%
Government ask

Publish firm-level market shares where legally possible.

Evidence checks3

Source records with publisher, access date, citation, and license notes.

Data-status labels that separate verified, estimated, incomplete, and unavailable values.

Public API endpoints that let others audit the underlying tables.

Public asks3

Publish firm-level market shares where legally possible.

Separate aggregate 'Other' rows from firm-level shares.

Release machine-readable tables alongside agency reports.

Inspect source ledgerOpen market
Evidence packet

Source records with publisher, access date, citation, and license notes.

Data-status labels that separate verified, estimated, incomplete, and unavailable values.

Public API endpoints that let others audit the underlying tables.

Public asks

Publish firm-level market shares where legally possible.

Separate aggregate 'Other' rows from firm-level shares.

Release machine-readable tables alongside agency reports.

Action packet

Public data rights route

3 evidence checks

Target market

Social referrals

Public signal

HHI 4,995

Government ask

Publish firm-level market shares where legally possible.

Evidence route

medium confidence · estimated public · Agency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats

Packet completion

Ready with caveats

4/6 checks ready

83%
Market scopedSocial referrals
Public signalHHI 4,995
Source confidencemedium confidence
Data postureestimated public
Metric packet3/3 core metrics published
Government askTest whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.
PlaybookInspect source ledgerProfileSocial referralsMarket JSONpublic profile rowSourcescitation rowsData consolescoped workbenchBrief builderAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats
Inspect source ledgerOpen target market
Government action docket

Markets where concentration signals, data gaps, or public harm narratives deserve fast public review.

7

Immediate

4

Evidence build

4

Data gaps

#03Social referralsTest whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.#01Search enginesTest whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.#02Mobile operating systemsTest whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.#04AI assistantsTest whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.#05Individual insuranceKeep the market on a public watchlist and require reusable concentration data at each major industry update.
Immediate reviewSocial referralsDigital platforms · United StatesHHI 4,995public signalHHI4,995CR494.4%Top68.9%HHI 4,995HHI 4,995 (>= 2,500)68.9% top firm (>= 35%)94.4% CR4 (>= 60%)Public actionTest whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.Evidence neededAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveatsmedium confidenceestimated publicImmediate reviewSearch enginesDigital platforms · United StatesHHI 7,359public signalHHI7,359CR499.4%Top85.2%HHI 7,359HHI 7,359 (>= 2,500)85.2% top firm (>= 35%)99.4% CR4 (>= 60%)Public actionTest whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.Evidence neededAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveatsmedium confidenceestimated publicImmediate reviewMobile operating systemsDigital platforms · United StatesHHI 5,337public signalHHI5,337CR4100.0%Top63.1%HHI 5,337HHI 5,337 (>= 2,500)63.1% top firm (>= 35%)100.0% CR4 (>= 60%)Public actionTest whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.Evidence neededAgency-ready source trail and market-definition caveatsmedium confidenceestimated publicImmediate reviewAI assistantsDigital platforms · United StatesHHI 4,804public signalHHI4,804CR494.8%Top67.1%HHI 4,804HHI 4,804 (>= 2,500)67.1% top firm (>= 35%)94.8% CR4 (>= 60%)Public actionTest whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.Evidence neededComparable multi-year observationsmedium confidenceestimated publicImmediate reviewIndividual insuranceHealth insurance · United States / separately reported state and District of Columbia marketsHHI 3,650public signalHHI3,650CR4N/ATopN/AHHI 3,650HHI 3,650 (>= 2,500)Public actionKeep the market on a public watchlist and require reusable concentration data at each major industry update.Evidence neededComplete participant shares and residual-category treatmenthigh confidenceestimated public
Public brief builder

Turn a market signal into an action packet.

Select a screened market and audience. The builder creates a short public comment scaffold with the signal, source posture, data gap, and government ask kept together.

Market

define scope

Evidence

source trail

Ask

government duty

Action

public packet

Evidence route

Social referrals

HHI

4,995

HHI 4,995

CR4

94.4%

four-firm share

Top firm

68.9%

single-firm share

Review lane

Immediate review

screening classification

Citable line

Social referrals: HHI 4,995; CR4 94.4%; top-firm share 68.9%; medium confidence; estimated public.

Market JSONMarket CSVObservationsSources

Screened market

Audience

Submission route

Social referrals

Federal
Draft routeDraft with caveats
Publication postureReview caveats

3/3 core metrics; disclose source and confidence limits

  1. 01MarketSocial referralsestimated public · medium confidenceReady
  2. 02EvidenceHHI 4,995medium confidence · estimated publicReady
  3. 03AudienceFederalDOJ, FTC, and sector regulatorsReady
  4. 04PacketTest whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.3/3 core metrics; disclose source and confidence limitsReady

Scope

Digital platforms

United States

Government target

Federal

open a public competition inquiry

Source posture

medium confidence

estimated public

Generated packet

Social referrals

To: DOJ, FTC, and sector regulators
Subject: Public competition evidence request for Social referrals

Antitrust Radar flags Social referrals as immediate review because the public signal is HHI 4,995. The current public record shows HHI 4,995, CR4 94.4%, and top-firm share 68.9%.

Public ask: Test whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.

Recommended action: open a public competition inquiry. Require the evidence needed to make this market inspectable: Agency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats

Source posture: medium confidence; estimated public. This packet is public education and advocacy research, not legal advice.
Route dossier
Federal

Audience

DOJ, FTC, and sector regulators

open a public competition inquiry

Signal

HHI 4,995

Immediate review · medium confidence

Evidence need

Agency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats

medium confidence; estimated public

Guardrail

Public education

Review sources and rules before external submission.

Market
Evidence
Ask
Action
Agency intake checklistWhat should travel with this public packet4/5 ready
TargetFederalDOJ, FTC, and sector regulators; ask them to open a public competition inquiry.
Market definitionSocial referralsDigital platforms / United States
Evidence packet3/3 core metricsHHI 4,995; CR4 94.4%; top-firm share 68.9%.
Disclosure askTest whether the dominant firm controls access, switching, pricing, defaults, distribution, or other chokepoints that weaken consumer choice.Agency-ready source trail and market-definition caveats
Public data trailestimated publicmedium confidence; attach API, CSV, observations, and source rows.
Public use kit

Move from evidence to submission without losing the data trail.

Copy the public comment, cite the market signal, open the API route, or seed a notebook with the same selected market.

Notebook starter

const profile = await fetch("/api/public/markets?market=us-social-media-referral-traffic").then((response) => response.json()); const observations = await fetch("/api/public/observations?market=us-social-media-referral-traffic").then((response) => response.json()); const sources = await fetch("/api/public/sources?market=us-social-media-referral-traffic").then((response) => response.json()); console.table(profile.rows); console.table(observations.rows); console.table(sources.rows);
Market profile Source ledger Method note

This is a public education scaffold for advocacy work. Review sources and jurisdiction-specific rules before submitting anything externally.

Trace every claim

Policy pressure starts with citations, data status, confidence labels, and market-definition limits.

Open sources

Keep methods visible

HHI, CR4, and top-firm share are screens. They are strongest when readers can see what was included and what was withheld.

Review methods

Publish public asks

Reports should name the data needed, the competition concern, and the public agency or process that can respond.

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Antitrust Radar publishes public education and advocacy research. It does not provide legal advice.