AnalysisData story
In 12 U.S. industries, four firms take at least 90 cents of every dollar
The 2022 Economic Census publishes a four-firm share for 897 detailed industries. Twelve are above 90 percent, 43 are above 80, and 406 of the 781 industries whose definition is unchanged since 2017 grew more concentrated.
The twelve
Every five years the Census Bureau publishes, for each detailed industry, the share of its sales, value of shipments, or revenue held by the four largest firms; which measure applies depends on the sector. The 2022 tables cover 897 six-digit industries with a published figure. In 12 of them the four largest firms hold at least 90 percent. Some are small and specialised: iron ore, missile propulsion, greeting cards. Others are industries most households pay every month.
Together the twelve account for 3 percent of the combined sales, shipments, and revenue of the 897 published industries. The list is ranked by the size of that measure and each row links to the industry page, which carries the eight-firm and twenty-firm shares, the HHI where the Census publishes one, and the 2017 comparison.
| # | Name | Four-firm share | HHI | Sales, shipments, or revenue | Firms |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warehouse clubs and supercenters | 95.6% | withheld | $810B | 35 |
| 2 | Wireless telecommunications carriers (except satellite) | 96.6% | 3,074 | $283B | 1,184 |
| 3 | Home centers | 98.0% | withheld | $258B | 776 |
| 4 | Tobacco manufacturing | 90.6% | withheld | $51B | 121 |
| 5 | Deep sea passenger transportation | 97.7% | 3,436 | $23B | 72 |
| 6 | Guided missile and space vehicle propulsion unit and propulsion unit parts manufacturing | 98.4% | withheld | $20B | 16 |
| 7 | Securities and commodity exchanges | 95.1% | 2,435 | $16B | 17 |
| 8 | Guided missile and space vehicle manufacturing | 96.7% | 3,377 | $15B | 18 |
| 9 | Iron ore mining | 99.4% | withheld | $4.4B | 13 |
| 10 | Greeting card publishers | 91.5% | withheld | $3.0B | 87 |
| 11 | Alumina refining and primary aluminum production | 91.3% | withheld | $2.9B | 11 |
| 12 | Commuter rail systems | 96.4% | withheld | $960M | 15 |
The markets people meet every week
Lower the bar to 60 percent and require at least $100 billion in sales, shipments, or revenue, and the list becomes a description of an ordinary household budget. Warehouse clubs and supercenters: 95.6% of $810B held by four firms. Pharmacies and drug retailers: 71.0% of $544B. Pharmacy benefit managers, the middlemen the FTC has been investigating since 2022: 77.3%. Wireless carriers: 96.6%. Scheduled passenger airlines: 72.9%.
136 published industries clear the 60 percent line. 24 have a published HHI above 1,800, the guidelines' threshold for a highly concentrated market. The Census withholds the HHI for many concentrated industries to protect individual firms' figures, which is why the four-firm share is the more complete screen.
Direction of travel
Of the 781 industries that can be matched between the 2017 and 2022 tables, 406 had a higher four-firm share in 2022 and 364 a lower one. That is not a stampede toward monopoly; it is a slow drift with some sharp moves. The largest increases among industries with at least $10 billion in sales, shipments, or revenue are below.
| # | Name | 2017 share | 2022 share | Change (points) | 2022 sales, shipments, or revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Local messengers and local delivery | 20.1% | 55.5% | +35.4 | $24B |
| 2 | Land subdivision | 12.9% | 41.4% | +28.5 | $18B |
| 3 | Other scientific and technical consulting services | 8.3% | 30.9% | +22.6 | $54B |
| 4 | Other management consulting services | 11.8% | 31.3% | +19.5 | $13B |
| 5 | Scheduled freight air transportation | 51.2% | 67.9% | +16.7 | $10B |
| 6 | Voluntary health organizations | 20.9% | 37.2% | +16.3 | $29B |
| 7 | Surface active agent manufacturing | 47.3% | 62.5% | +15.2 | $10B |
| 8 | Railroad rolling stock manufacturing | 40.0% | 54.9% | +14.9 | $12B |
| 9 | Nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing | 62.9% | 77.5% | +14.6 | $15B |
| 10 | Crude petroleum extraction | 26.9% | 40.7% | +13.8 | $354B |
What should happen
The Census Bureau already runs the screen. What is missing is anyone acting on it. We think the FTC and the Antitrust Division should treat a four-firm share above 80 percent, or a five-year increase of ten points or more, as grounds to open a market study, publish the firm-level shares behind it, and say in writing whether the industry's structure warrants a closer look. Market studies do not require a merger to be pending, and they are the tool most suited to industries where concentration arrived by growth rather than by a single deal.
We also think the Census Bureau should publish the HHI alongside the concentration ratio wherever it can without disclosing a single firm's figure, and should say which industries were suppressed and why. A withheld HHI in a concentrated industry is a data gap with a policy cost.
How we counted
Four-firm shares (CR4) come from the 2022 Economic Census concentration tables for six-digit NAICS industries with a published, unflagged value. Revenue is the industry's sales, value of shipments, or revenue in thousands of dollars as published. The 2017 comparison matches industries by NAICS code and keeps a code only when its name, level, and sector are unchanged between the two censuses; 16 codes that were redefined are excluded. The Federal Reserve's own Census row (monetary authorities) is left out of the large-industry table because it is not a market.
Census concentration ratios describe the share of an industry's sales, value of shipments, or revenue held by its largest firms at the national level. A NAICS industry is a statistical category, not an antitrust market, and withheld values stay missing.
Analysis pieces state Antitrust Radar's editorial position. Every figure is computed from the site's published datasets at build time and links to the page that holds it. Concentration measures identify where to look; they do not by themselves establish market power, harm, or unlawful conduct.