Antitrust Radar

Public research program

Research Agenda Observatory

Research questions prompted by observed changes in competition data. Each question identifies an empirical approach, evidence needs, and what current observations cannot establish.

Question field / domain × method

Where the public research program is concentrated46 source-custodied questions across 5 evidence systems and 7 declared methods.
Public research agenda question field46 linked questions arranged across defined-market, Census-industry, banking-geography, Census business-dynamics, and merger-program evidence systems and 7 declared empirical methods.MarketsIndustriesGeographiesDynamismMergersQ01: United States business dynamics, Business-flow contextQ02: United States business dynamics, Business-flow contextQ03: United States business dynamics, Business-flow contextQ04: United States business dynamics, Business-flow contextQ05: United States business dynamics, Business-flow contextQ06: United States business dynamics, Business-flow contextQ07: Median census tract, Geographic structureQ08: Median county, Geographic structureQ09: Median state, Geographic structureQ10: Statewide branch-deposit screens, Geographic structureQ11: U.S. fixed broadband connections, Geographic structureQ12: United States branch-deposit screen, Geographic structureQ13: Accommodation and food services, Industry disaggregationQ14: Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services, Industry disaggregationQ15: Arts, entertainment, and recreation, Industry disaggregationQ16: Construction, Industry disaggregationQ17: Educational services, Industry disaggregationQ18: Finance and insurance, Industry disaggregationQ19: Health care and social assistance, Industry disaggregationQ20: Information, Industry disaggregationQ21: Manufacturing, Industry disaggregationQ22: Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, Industry disaggregationQ23: Other services (except public administration), Industry disaggregationQ24: Professional, scientific, and technical services, Industry disaggregationQ25: Real estate and rental and leasing, Industry disaggregationQ26: Retail trade, Industry disaggregationQ27: Transportation and warehousing, Industry disaggregationQ28: Utilities, Industry disaggregationQ29: Wholesale trade, Industry disaggregationQ30: Beef meatpacking, Share accountingQ31: Browsers, Share accountingQ32: Browsers, Market mechanismQ33: Browsers, Share accountingQ34: Fixed broadband, Market mechanismQ35: Mobile operating systems, Share accountingQ36: Mobile operating systems, Market mechanismQ37: Mobile operating systems, Share accountingQ38: Search engines, Share accountingQ39: Search engines, Market mechanismQ40: Search engines, Share accountingQ41: Social referrals, Share accountingQ42: Social referrals, Market mechanismQ43: Social referrals, Share accountingQ44: Wireless service, Market mechanismQ45: Hart-Scott-Rodino program, Review process contextQ46: Hart-Scott-Rodino program, Merger program contextMechanism6 questionsShares9 questionsIndustries17 questionsGeography6 questionsBusiness flows6 questionsFilings1 questionReview1 question
Research questions
46
signal-derived
Declared methods
7
metric-specific
Source records
12
current custody
Evidence requests
184
work to collect
Observed signalExact metric, anchors, interval, unit, and universe remain attached.
Bounded questionThe monitor question is preserved verbatim and never converted into a verdict.
Evidence requestDeclared collection work is separated from evidence already in custody.
Evidence standard

Question register

Move from an observed change to a testable research program

Questions stay in published signal order. Methods and evidence requests are declared; no priority score is calculated.
Questions shown
2
of 46 published
Entities
1
exact signal subjects
Methods
2
of 7 declared
Source records
1
unique custody rows
Evidence requests
8
work items, not findings
Published questions2 / 46
Q45 / Federal merger activityReview process context

How did transaction mix, clearance, adjusted denominators, and agency review practice change alongside the observed rate?

Hart-Scott-Rodino program / Second Request rate

FY20243.0%
-0.90 pp1 year
FY20252.1%

Observed signal

Second Request rate moved from 3.0% in FY2024 to 2.1% in FY2025 (-0.90 percentage points).Latest reported federal fiscal year versus the immediately preceding fiscal year in the same HSR annual report series.

Bounded interpretation

The latest reported review rate is lower than the prior fiscal year. This is a program-activity comparison, not a finding about merger harm or enforcement effectiveness.Second Requests and public enforcement actions are different stages with different timing rules. Their counts must not be treated as a finding that every reviewed or reported transaction was anticompetitive.
Empirical trackReview process context

Test whether transaction mix, clearance, adjusted denominators, or agency practice moved alongside the review rate.

Evidence base
10 annual records / FY2016-FY2025
Status
verified / high confidence

Declared empirical tracks

7 methods, each tied to a published metric family

The method register makes the work program inspectable while leaving research importance and enforcement merit unranked.
01Market mechanism

Test entry, exit, switching, price, quality, capacity, and share pathways inside the declared market boundary.

6 questions / market-hhi
02Share accounting

Reconstruct participant-share movement while checking denominator, coverage, entry, exit, and transaction changes.

9 questions / market-cr4, market-leader-share
03Industry disaggregation

Trace a sector median back to strict six-digit Census rows before proposing a product or geographic market study.

17 questions / industry-median-hhi
04Geographic structure

Reconcile national and nested geographic concentration summaries with area-level distributions, provider or ownership paths, measurement boundaries, and local-market evidence.

6 questions / state-bank-median-hhi, national-bank-deposit-hhi, fixed-broadband-hhi
05Business-flow context

Disaggregate national entry, exit, job-flow, and reallocation movement by sector, place, and firm age before proposing a competitive mechanism.

6 questions / establishment-entry-rate, establishment-exit-rate, job-creation-rate, job-destruction-rate, net-job-creation-rate, reallocation-rate
06Merger program context

Place HSR notification volume beside filing mix, transaction size, thresholds, exemptions, and macroeconomic context.

1 question / hsr-transactions
07Review process context

Test whether transaction mix, clearance, adjusted denominators, or agency practice moved alongside the review rate.

1 question / hsr-second-request-rate
Research Agenda Observatory | Antitrust Radar