Antitrust Radar
Hart-Scott-Rodino program two-anchor observed comparisonFY2024 2,031 to FY2025 2,006, a decrease of -25. The vertical placement is normalized to this two-point comparison and is not a shared scale.PRIOR ANCHORLATEST ANCHOR

Canonical research dossier

Q46 / Federal merger activity / Merger program context

How did filing mix, transaction size, thresholds, exemptions, and macroeconomic conditions change alongside notification volume?

Hart-Scott-Rodino program / Reported HSR transactions
FY2024
2,031
prior anchor
Observed change
-25
1 year
FY2025
2,006
latest anchor
Current custody
1
source record
Observed comparisonExact values, periods, metric, unit, and universe stay attached.
Research questionThe monitor question is preserved verbatim as a bounded program of inquiry.
Evidence to collectDeclared requests are future work, not established evidence or findings.
Evidence standard

Published signal

The observation behind the question

Latest reported federal fiscal year versus the immediately preceding fiscal year in the same HSR annual report series.
FY20242,031prior
-25Decrease
FY20252,006latest
Observed signalReported HSR transactions moved from 2,031 in FY2024 to 2,006 in FY2025 (-25 transactions).

The latest reported transaction volume is lower than the prior fiscal year. This is a program-activity comparison, not a finding about merger harm or enforcement effectiveness.

HSR transactions are notifications reported under the federal premerger program, not a census of every U.S. merger. A reported transaction can involve multiple filings, and the adjusted denominator removes matters for which the agencies could not issue a Second Request.

Declared empirical track

Merger program context

Place HSR notification volume beside filing mix, transaction size, thresholds, exemptions, and macroeconomic context.
Evidence base
10 annual records / FY2016-FY2025
Data status
verified
Confidence
high
Metric family
hsr-transactions

Evidence to collect

4 declared requests
  1. 01

    Transaction-size distribution and filing composition for both fiscal years.

  2. 02

    Threshold, exemption, reporting-rule, and early-termination changes across the interval.

  3. 03

    Transaction outcome and industry-mix records that can separate volume from composition.

  4. 04

    Macroeconomic and financing context reported alongside, without treating co-movement as causation.

These requests define collection work. Their inclusion does not assert that the records exist, support a claim, or establish a cause.

Current source custody

Evidence already attached to the observed signal

Collection requests above remain separate from these published source records.
Federal Trade Commission and U.S. Department of Justice48th Hart-Scott-Rodino Annual Report (FY 2025)Source profile

HSR transactions are notifications reported under the federal premerger program, not a census of every U.S. merger. A reported transaction can involve multiple filings, and the adjusted denominator removes matters for which the agencies could not issue a Second Request.

Research handoffs

Keep the question connected to its evidence system

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